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Majority in new poll says 2020 recession is likely in the next year

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A majority of respondents about 60 percent, said in a new poll that 2020 recession is likely within the next year amid the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. While the ABC News/Washington Post poll saw that 56 percent still undoubtedly rate the U.S. economy overall, Americans by a nearly 3-1 margin say President Trump’s trade and economic strategies have made a recession more likely to occur in the next 12 months.

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating dropped several points in a new poll, while Americans’ fears of a looming 2020 recession have increased and their trust in Trump’s handling of the economy has declined.

Thirty-eight percent of respondents in an ABC News/Washington Post poll published Tuesday approve of Trump’s performance in office, a drop of 6 points from a peak of 44 percent approval in July. A majority, 56 percent, disapprove of the way Trump is managing his job as president, while six percent have no idea.

Americans’ opinions on Trump’s stewardship of the economy, that his re-election effort projects to emphasize to voters as he battles for a second term, have reduced too, according to the poll.

Less than half of respondents, 46 percent, now support of the way the president is handling the economy, a decrease from 51 percent approval in midsummer. Fewer of those polled, 35 percent, approve of the way the president is handling trade negotiations with China, and 60 percent are concerned that the trade battle between the two countries will increase the price of goods for their families.

Nevertheless, 6 in 10 Americans tell 2020 recession for America is likely in the next year and as many are concerned about higher prices because of the trade war with China, helping to knock 6 points off Donald Trump’s job approval rating in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Americans’ fears of a looming 2020 recession have increased

With Republicans generally, Trump still keeps high levels of approval, though it fell from 5 points to 82 percent after his peak at 87 percent in July. 
Among independents, his approval is 36 percent and among Democrats, his approval is just 8 percent. 
The poll surveyed 1,003 adults between Sept. 2 and 5. There is a 3.5 percentage point margin of failure.

Trump has moved to intensify the tariff dispute with Beijing in recent weeks, stating fresh hikes to duties on Chinese imports. The new front in the trade fight, along with the president’s consistent attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, has played out as U.S. financial indicators have warned of a possible economic downturn or recession.

Only 16 percent of respondents think Trump’s policies have reduced the odds of a recession, while 34 percent say they have made no difference and 7 percent have no opinion.

The new poll was conducted between Sept. 2 and Sept. 5 among 1,003 adults. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Trump late last month announced plans to increase tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars in Chinese goods in a sweeping response to duties Beijing had announced earlier that day. The 10 percent tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods that went into effect Sept. 1 increased to 15 percent, and an additional $250 billion being tariffed at 25 percent will be hit with a 30 percent tariff starting Oct. 1.

Fears of a global recession are also driven in part by the mounting costs of Trump’s trade battles, with U.S. business investment, exports and manufacturing all retracting as firms hold off on expanding due to an uncertain and chaotic economic environment.

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